La estrategia de Irán ante el proceso de paz de Afganistán. Factores condicionantes: seguridad y liderazgo regional

Iran's strategy in the Afghan peace process. Conditioning factors: security and regional leadership

DOI: 10.17103/reei.41.09

Javier Ruiz Arévalo

Resumen

En los últimos años se ha impuesto la certeza de que, en el conflicto afgano, la paz sólo será posible tras un acuerdo en el que deben concurrir los principales actores regionales. Irán es uno de los más relevantes. Para muchos analistas, la postura de Teherán es difícil de predecir porque sus objetivos en su relación con Afganistán han ido variando en el tiempo, en función de factores difíciles de identificar. A lo largo de este artículo se demostrará que, muy al contrario, Irán ha demostrado históricamente unos intereses estratégicos claros y estables respecto a su vecino oriental, que son los que determinarán su postura ante el futuro de Afganistán. Por encima de intereses coyunturales, o afinidades étnicas, religiosas o culturales, la postura de Irán ante el proceso de paz está determinada por esos intereses estratégicos que han guiado su política regional de manera coherente desde el triunfo de la Revolución Islámica. Esa estrategia se ha tenido que ir adaptando a los profundos cambios producidos en su entorno geopolítico, pero ha sido este entorno y no sus intereses estratégicos los que han variado durante estas décadas.

Abstract

There is a general agreement on the idea that in the Afghan conflict, peace will only be possible after an agreement in which the main regional actors must concur. Iran is one of the most relevant. For many analysts, Tehran's position is difficult to predict because its objectives in its relationship with Afghanistan have varied over time, depending on factors that are difficult to identify. Throughout this article it will be shown that, quite to the contrary, Iran has historically demonstrated clear and stable strategic interests vis-à-vis its eastern neighbor, which are what will determine its position on the future of Afghanistan. Over and above conjunctural interests, or ethnic, religious or cultural affinities, Iran's position towards the peace process is determined by those strategic interests that have consistently guided its regional policy since the triumph of the Islamic Revolution. This strategy had to be adapted to the profound changes produced in its geopolitical environment, but it has been this environment and not its strategic interests that have changed during these decades.

Palabras clave

Irán, Conflicto Afgano, Oriente Medio, Talibán, Revolución Islámica. Estrategia.

Keywords

Iran, Afghan Conflict, Middle East, Taliban, Islamic Revolution. Strategy.

About the author/s

Javier Ruiz Arévalo

Coronel del Ejército de Tierra. Doctor en Derecho. Codirector del Centro Mixto Universidad de Granada - Mando de Adiestramiento y Doctrina del Ejército de Tierra.  

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